Hello and welcome to AverageOpposition.
What’s this all about then?
It’s a site looking at football stats based on the quality of opposition. So Goals, Assists, Goal Involvements, Appearances will all feature. And we're not forgetting about the dirty work at the other end of the pitch — we'll also track Clean Sheets for Keepers and Defenders. We'll do the same for Teams as well — who they beat/lose to/draw with, keep a clean sheet against, score against by opponent range.
Opponent Range?
Yep, it's a fair assumption to say that the Top 6 teams in the league are quality opposition, and the Bottom 6 are……we'll say weaker. That just leaves the middle group as the third.
Who does it apply to?
At the moment it's just a hobby so I've based it around the five biggest European leagues — the Premier League, Serie A, La Liga, Ligue Un and the Bundesliga. Depending on how this goes, I'll add other leagues such as the Championship, Portuguese and Dutch. There will also be the odd piece here and there about selected topics outside of these leagues, some Player Comparisons, International Comparisons and also some retro reviews. If I can get that going, then hopefully I’ll be able to apply it to other sports.
How does it work?
If someone scores 30 goals in a season but 20 of them are against teams in the bottom 6, it's fair to say that they're a Flat Track Bully. If they have a higher percentage against Top 6 teams for goals/assists/clean sheets, that would suggest that they're Big Game Players. I appreciate that football is more than just these metrics, but it's a start.
So not an exact science?
In so far as presenting the ranges, it’s pretty foolproof. However, there are things to consider — it’s slightly unfairly weighted to players playing for Top 6 teams as it means they can only play a maximum 10 games rather than 12 against the good teams. Also, as a new season begins and the ranking is based on current tables, there can be some odd data until the season starts to settle after 10 games or so. With that in mind, we go back to 21/22. The completed seasons data is probably more interesting. You can find that on any player or club page, or for more detail use the season dropdown. It's at the top of the page on the website, or on the menu if viewing on the phone.
Hasn’t this been done?
I started this back in 2011, having searched far and wide for something similar. I couldn’t find anything that seems to measure the same opposition data on a consistent basis back then, and I still can't now. The aim of this site is to show something new that hasn't already been done. So it has been done, but it was by me.
What's changed?
I had to stop in 2013 due to parenthood and having a grown up job. Now with technology advancements meaning I don't have to key in every single stat each week, I thought I'd give it another go.
How did it come about?
I happened to be looking at top international goal scorers and noticed that Pele (77) and Puskas (84) had a similar number of international goals. They were both rated as amongst the best in the world and played in a similar era (for national teams – Puskas 1945-56 and Pele 1957-71). It got me wondering if there was a weighting to their goals to see who scored against the better opposition at the time (not taking into account Competitive/Non Competitive games). I wrote into the excellent The Knowledge column on the Guardian football site, but unfortunately all the compilers seemed to be out of the office at the time so the question never got published. Either that or they just didn’t like the question….
When looking at just goals per game it can be misleading. Take Australia’s Archie Thompson for example, his international strike rate is an impressive 21 goals in 33 games. That strike rate of 0.64 goals per game is better than:
- Marco van Basten – 0.41 (goals per game)
- Ruud Gullit – 0.26
- Alan Shearer – 0.48
- Raul – 0.43
- Jurgen Klinsmann – 0.44
The difference being that whilst the legends above have done it on the biggest stages against good opposition, Archie Thompson scored 13 of his goals in one game (vs American Samoa #203). Take that game out and it’s a less impressive 8 goals in 32 games (0.25). And if you dig a little deeper, the list of opponents scored against and their FIFA World Ranking at the time is:
- Tonga #178 – 1 goal
- Samoa #174 – 2 goals
- Solomon Islands #125 – 1 goal
- Solomon Islands #136 – 2 goals
- Jamaica #40 – 1 goal
- Bahrain #52 – 1 goal
Including the 13 goals against American Samoa, then his average opponent per goal is ranked 174th. Better than my record but significantly lower than the more celebrated players mentioned above.
Now this isn’t a witch hunt against Archie Thompson. His club strike rate is also very good, it’s just his example is the best to illustrate the point about goals per game, and also the 13 goals in one match is an eye catching world record. I’m sure you could do the same with the third top international goal scorer of all time – Iran’s Ali Daei who has 109 goals in 149 games. Some of the opponents he scored against include Sri Lanka, Chinese Taipei, Guam, Nepal, Maldives and several others of similar rankings. Again, this isn’t a dig at the player – anyone who earns a move to Bayern Munich is no cart horse, I’m just highlighting that although he once had the most international goals of all time (before Messi and Ronaldo ruined stats) – it’s a slightly misleading stat.
Sadly, the Pele/Puskas debate is destined to live on, as I can only find monthly FIFA rankings back to 1997. Anyone that’s able to help on that, please feel free to let me know. You’re also more than welcome to write a guest article!
What do you expect to find?
Good ways to settle an argument in the pub. Being a West Ham fan who is friends with Arsenal fans, I often had to listen to how much better Saka was than Bowen. This happened especially in 2023/24 when both had their best scoring seasons. Yet when you use the Compare function or line them up as your watchlist players (use the star), you can see that Bowen out performed him — from a productivity point of view at least. Yes, non-Big 6 clubs do have a chip on our shoulder.
Just a hobby? Doesn’t that make you a bit of a nerd?
Firstly, shut up. Secondly, I find it interesting. And Thirdly, who knows where it might lead! Probably nowhere, but one can dream – just look at Ali Daei, the previous Top Scorer in International football history. He probably didn’t think he’d reach that milestone when as a lanky 24 year old and still waiting for his first international goal, he lined up against the might of Chinese Taipei….
What next then?
Well I've found a new way to present the data, so it's a case of stop messing around asking myself questions, and start producing things. There's plenty of good content now so have a look around, compare players, go back over 5 seasons, look at the similar player details, and check out the occasional article.
It might also be useful for Fantasy Football players, or people that like a bet (please do so responsibly).
Other sports?
Any sport with a league based ranking system can use this same approach. I'll be looking into that if this goes well.
Any cost?
Not at the moment, if I can get the odd advert up then hopefully not ever.
Anything else?
I hope you enjoy it or at least find it interesting enough to waste a few minutes reading. To be perfectly honest, I’ll be happy as long as you visit regardless of your enjoyment as it’ll put my visitors number up — and I love stats.
Thanks,
Liam